Prediction receipts

Every ETA we publish is timestamped before the vessel arrives, then scored against the actual arrival. No retro-fitting, no cherry-picking — the losses stay on the board with the wins. Last 30 days, most recent first.

Receipts settled

100

closed voyages with a pre-arrival prediction

Head-to-head vs broadcast

91 %

closer than the crew's own ETA on 42/46 comparable voyages

Average lead time

1 h

between the last locked prediction and arrival

The ledger

error = ETA minus actual arrival (hours)

Port	MMSI	Prediction locked	Arrived	Our error	Broadcast error	Verdict
🇯🇵 Yokohama / Tokyo Bay	431000527	26 Aug, 23:23 UTC	26 Aug, 23:37 UTC	1.7 h	-4.6 h	✓ beat
🇩🇪 Bremerhaven	355137000	26 Aug, 23:28 UTC	26 Aug, 23:37 UTC	0.2 h	-42.6 h	✓ beat
🇯🇵 Yokohama / Tokyo Bay	431100969	26 Aug, 22:54 UTC	26 Aug, 23:36 UTC	1.3 h	sentinel	n/a
🇫🇷 Dunkerque	538004750	26 Aug, 21:40 UTC	26 Aug, 23:36 UTC	-0.7 h	sentinel	n/a
🇳🇱 Amsterdam	205509590	26 Aug, 23:23 UTC	26 Aug, 23:35 UTC	-0.2 h	-34.9 h	✓ beat
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	244046289	26 Aug, 23:33 UTC	26 Aug, 23:35 UTC	9.9 h	-29.6 h	✓ beat
🇳🇱 Amsterdam	232046269	26 Aug, 23:26 UTC	26 Aug, 23:34 UTC	-0.0 h	sentinel	n/a
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	244733530	26 Aug, 23:26 UTC	26 Aug, 23:32 UTC	9.9 h	—	n/a
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	244660351	26 Aug, 23:23 UTC	26 Aug, 23:31 UTC	-3.9 h	-23.5 h	✓ beat
🇯🇵 Yokohama / Tokyo Bay	431001071	26 Aug, 23:23 UTC	26 Aug, 23:31 UTC	-1.1 h	-7.5 h	✓ beat
🇧🇪 Antwerp	205575890	26 Aug, 23:18 UTC	26 Aug, 23:29 UTC	0.8 h	sentinel	n/a
🇧🇪 Antwerp	211487500	26 Aug, 23:19 UTC	26 Aug, 23:29 UTC	-0.6 h	16.2 h	✓ beat
🇭🇰 Hong Kong	538010433	26 Aug, 22:34 UTC	26 Aug, 23:28 UTC	0.3 h	sentinel	n/a
🇧🇪 Antwerp	205568390	26 Aug, 23:19 UTC	26 Aug, 23:28 UTC	0.4 h	—	n/a
🇸🇬 Singapore	566702000	26 Aug, 23:07 UTC	26 Aug, 23:28 UTC	2.2 h	7.3 h	✓ beat
🇮🇹 Trieste	636015908	26 Aug, 22:56 UTC	26 Aug, 23:26 UTC	2.5 h	-2.4 h	✗ missed
🇳🇱 Amsterdam	246845000	26 Aug, 23:16 UTC	26 Aug, 23:26 UTC	0.4 h	sentinel	n/a
🇧🇪 Antwerp	244218293	26 Aug, 23:07 UTC	26 Aug, 23:26 UTC	0.6 h	—	n/a
🇧🇪 Antwerp	244850275	26 Aug, 23:21 UTC	26 Aug, 23:26 UTC	-0.9 h	sentinel	n/a
🇧🇪 Antwerp	205546090	26 Aug, 23:17 UTC	26 Aug, 23:26 UTC	1.7 h	-0.0 h	✗ missed
🇭🇰 Hong Kong	477997242	26 Aug, 23:21 UTC	26 Aug, 23:25 UTC	0.5 h	sentinel	n/a
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	244012683	26 Aug, 23:16 UTC	26 Aug, 23:25 UTC	2.1 h	-7.7 h	✓ beat
🇯🇵 Yokohama / Tokyo Bay	431000986	26 Aug, 23:20 UTC	26 Aug, 23:25 UTC	1.2 h	sentinel	n/a
🇧🇪 Antwerp	244670494	26 Aug, 23:18 UTC	26 Aug, 23:25 UTC	1.6 h	35.3 h	✓ beat
🇧🇪 Antwerp	257289000	26 Aug, 23:15 UTC	26 Aug, 23:21 UTC	0.4 h	—	n/a
🇸🇬 Singapore	538090616	26 Aug, 23:07 UTC	26 Aug, 23:21 UTC	2.2 h	-42.4 h	✓ beat
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	205564190	26 Aug, 23:16 UTC	26 Aug, 23:21 UTC	4.0 h	sentinel	n/a
🇩🇪 Hamburg	257755000	26 Aug, 23:13 UTC	26 Aug, 23:21 UTC	0.6 h	-8.4 h	✓ beat
🇯🇵 Yokohama / Tokyo Bay	431009113	26 Aug, 23:00 UTC	26 Aug, 23:20 UTC	-2.3 h	-7.3 h	✓ beat
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	244074275	26 Aug, 23:05 UTC	26 Aug, 23:20 UTC	1.3 h	—	n/a
🇯🇵 Yokohama / Tokyo Bay	431006049	26 Aug, 23:10 UTC	26 Aug, 23:20 UTC	1.4 h	-91.3 h	✓ beat
🇧🇪 Antwerp	244740453	26 Aug, 23:10 UTC	26 Aug, 23:20 UTC	-0.2 h	-50.9 h	✓ beat
🇩🇪 Hamburg	211162470	26 Aug, 23:18 UTC	26 Aug, 23:19 UTC	1.2 h	—	n/a
🇭🇰 Hong Kong	413773462	26 Aug, 22:37 UTC	26 Aug, 23:19 UTC	-0.7 h	—	n/a
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	244850360	26 Aug, 23:11 UTC	26 Aug, 23:19 UTC	-0.4 h	sentinel	n/a
🇧🇪 Antwerp	218006030	26 Aug, 23:13 UTC	26 Aug, 23:16 UTC	2.4 h	—	n/a
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	244650588	26 Aug, 23:06 UTC	26 Aug, 23:16 UTC	1.4 h	—	n/a
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	244070991	26 Aug, 23:04 UTC	26 Aug, 23:16 UTC	-0.4 h	—	n/a
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	304030000	26 Aug, 23:12 UTC	26 Aug, 23:14 UTC	9.2 h	-38.2 h	✓ beat
🇳🇱 Amsterdam	211121690	26 Aug, 23:03 UTC	26 Aug, 23:14 UTC	0.5 h	—	n/a
🇧🇪 Antwerp	205482190	26 Aug, 23:13 UTC	26 Aug, 23:14 UTC	0.7 h	9.5 h	✓ beat
🇸🇬 Singapore	564287000	25 Aug, 13:36 UTC	26 Aug, 23:13 UTC	-32.6 h	-87.2 h	✓ beat
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	244650739	26 Aug, 23:10 UTC	26 Aug, 23:12 UTC	9.4 h	sentinel	n/a
🇧🇪 Antwerp	244630035	26 Aug, 23:07 UTC	26 Aug, 23:12 UTC	2.5 h	sentinel	n/a
🇬🇷 Piraeus	240620300	26 Aug, 22:58 UTC	26 Aug, 23:12 UTC	0.6 h	sentinel	n/a
🇧🇪 Antwerp	636023094	26 Aug, 23:07 UTC	26 Aug, 23:12 UTC	0.7 h	-7.2 h	✓ beat
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	244070846	26 Aug, 23:05 UTC	26 Aug, 23:12 UTC	-0.5 h	sentinel	n/a
🇧🇪 Antwerp	255916109	26 Aug, 22:59 UTC	26 Aug, 23:11 UTC	0.8 h	-63.2 h	✓ beat
🇭🇰 Hong Kong	440493000	26 Aug, 22:42 UTC	26 Aug, 23:11 UTC	0.4 h	-1.7 h	✓ beat
🇭🇰 Hong Kong	305558000	26 Aug, 22:50 UTC	26 Aug, 23:10 UTC	0.2 h	—	n/a
🇧🇪 Antwerp	205570190	26 Aug, 23:08 UTC	26 Aug, 23:10 UTC	0.2 h	sentinel	n/a
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	244719540	26 Aug, 23:05 UTC	26 Aug, 23:10 UTC	6.8 h	sentinel	n/a
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	218085000	26 Aug, 23:02 UTC	26 Aug, 23:09 UTC	0.2 h	sentinel	n/a
🇯🇵 Yokohama / Tokyo Bay	431501791	26 Aug, 22:51 UTC	26 Aug, 23:09 UTC	-2.3 h	-15.2 h	✓ beat
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	244620933	26 Aug, 22:52 UTC	26 Aug, 23:09 UTC	0.3 h	-156.6 h	✓ beat
🇯🇵 Yokohama / Tokyo Bay	431009317	26 Aug, 23:00 UTC	26 Aug, 23:09 UTC	2.0 h	—	n/a
🇧🇪 Antwerp	205222790	26 Aug, 23:01 UTC	26 Aug, 23:08 UTC	2.0 h	sentinel	n/a
🇳🇱 Amsterdam	244131369	26 Aug, 23:04 UTC	26 Aug, 23:08 UTC	0.2 h	-50.8 h	✓ beat
🇭🇰 Hong Kong	477995064	26 Aug, 22:30 UTC	26 Aug, 23:08 UTC	0.2 h	—	n/a
🇺🇸 Los Angeles	538004202	26 Aug, 22:59 UTC	26 Aug, 23:07 UTC	0.7 h	-1.1 h	✓ beat
🇳🇱 Amsterdam	244000835	26 Aug, 22:59 UTC	26 Aug, 23:07 UTC	0.4 h	sentinel	n/a
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	244716806	26 Aug, 22:52 UTC	26 Aug, 23:06 UTC	1.6 h	-11.3 h	✓ beat
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	244046976	26 Aug, 22:55 UTC	26 Aug, 23:06 UTC	10.6 h	1.3 h	✗ missed
🇳🇱 Amsterdam	244700311	26 Aug, 22:59 UTC	26 Aug, 23:06 UTC	0.4 h	—	n/a
🇳🇱 Amsterdam	244740684	26 Aug, 22:59 UTC	26 Aug, 23:05 UTC	0.2 h	—	n/a
🇫🇷 Le Havre	226012010	26 Aug, 22:56 UTC	26 Aug, 23:03 UTC	-0.2 h	—	n/a
🇳🇱 Amsterdam	244100621	26 Aug, 22:59 UTC	26 Aug, 23:03 UTC	0.2 h	—	n/a
🇯🇵 Yokohama / Tokyo Bay	431000892	26 Aug, 22:57 UTC	26 Aug, 23:03 UTC	1.6 h	9.2 h	✓ beat
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	244830333	26 Aug, 22:51 UTC	26 Aug, 23:02 UTC	0.3 h	-49.5 h	✓ beat
🇧🇪 Antwerp	244218293	26 Aug, 22:52 UTC	26 Aug, 23:02 UTC	0.7 h	—	n/a
🇧🇪 Antwerp	244164000	26 Aug, 22:52 UTC	26 Aug, 23:02 UTC	2.5 h	31.0 h	✓ beat
🇩🇪 Bremerhaven	209731000	26 Aug, 22:51 UTC	26 Aug, 23:02 UTC	0.8 h	-17.0 h	✓ beat
🇳🇱 Amsterdam	244690107	26 Aug, 22:49 UTC	26 Aug, 23:01 UTC	1.8 h	—	n/a
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	244620963	26 Aug, 22:51 UTC	26 Aug, 23:01 UTC	-0.8 h	21.6 h	✓ beat
🇧🇪 Antwerp	246108000	26 Aug, 22:51 UTC	26 Aug, 23:01 UTC	1.0 h	82.0 h	✓ beat
🇧🇪 Antwerp	205543390	26 Aug, 22:51 UTC	26 Aug, 23:00 UTC	1.6 h	sentinel	n/a
🇳🇱 Amsterdam	244001028	26 Aug, 22:55 UTC	26 Aug, 23:00 UTC	0.3 h	sentinel	n/a
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	244670595	26 Aug, 20:44 UTC	26 Aug, 22:58 UTC	-2.3 h	—	n/a
🇸🇬 Singapore	563038800	26 Aug, 14:28 UTC	26 Aug, 22:58 UTC	-9.3 h	-26.5 h	✓ beat
🇺🇸 Houston	477083800	26 Aug, 22:33 UTC	26 Aug, 22:57 UTC	-5.3 h	sentinel	n/a
🇯🇵 Yokohama / Tokyo Bay	370439000	26 Aug, 22:16 UTC	26 Aug, 22:56 UTC	-1.8 h	-1.4 h	✗ missed
🇯🇵 Yokohama / Tokyo Bay	431006191	26 Aug, 22:47 UTC	26 Aug, 22:56 UTC	1.8 h	-4.9 h	✓ beat
🇧🇪 Antwerp	205436290	26 Aug, 22:49 UTC	26 Aug, 22:56 UTC	4.2 h	34.4 h	✓ beat
🇧🇪 Antwerp	636016683	26 Aug, 22:50 UTC	26 Aug, 22:56 UTC	1.7 h	-30.4 h	✓ beat
🇧🇪 Antwerp	205371390	26 Aug, 22:45 UTC	26 Aug, 22:55 UTC	0.7 h	-27.8 h	✓ beat
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	235095972	26 Aug, 22:53 UTC	26 Aug, 22:55 UTC	8.3 h	-24.9 h	✓ beat
🇧🇪 Antwerp	244670191	26 Aug, 22:51 UTC	26 Aug, 22:55 UTC	0.4 h	—	n/a
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	244710707	26 Aug, 22:47 UTC	26 Aug, 22:53 UTC	1.5 h	—	n/a
🇯🇵 Yokohama / Tokyo Bay	431003435	26 Aug, 22:32 UTC	26 Aug, 22:53 UTC	4.3 h	sentinel	n/a
🇧🇪 Antwerp	205591890	26 Aug, 22:44 UTC	26 Aug, 22:52 UTC	1.2 h	-3.0 h	✓ beat
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	205212890	26 Aug, 22:46 UTC	26 Aug, 22:52 UTC	2.5 h	sentinel	n/a
🇧🇪 Antwerp	244730899	26 Aug, 22:49 UTC	26 Aug, 22:51 UTC	0.2 h	sentinel	n/a
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	257836000	26 Aug, 22:44 UTC	26 Aug, 22:51 UTC	-0.9 h	-30.9 h	✓ beat
🇺🇸 Corpus Christi	367457000	26 Aug, 22:42 UTC	26 Aug, 22:50 UTC	-0.7 h	-55.8 h	✓ beat
🇧🇪 Antwerp	205391690	26 Aug, 22:46 UTC	26 Aug, 22:48 UTC	1.5 h	—	n/a
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	244620196	26 Aug, 22:41 UTC	26 Aug, 22:48 UTC	-1.1 h	-34.2 h	✓ beat
🇸🇬 Singapore	574005160	26 Aug, 10:50 UTC	26 Aug, 22:48 UTC	-10.3 h	—	n/a
🇧🇪 Antwerp	205320790	26 Aug, 22:42 UTC	26 Aug, 22:48 UTC	-0.1 h	—	n/a
🇧🇪 Antwerp	244660532	26 Aug, 22:46 UTC	26 Aug, 22:47 UTC	1.6 h	—	n/a
🇳🇱 Rotterdam	211511740	26 Aug, 22:40 UTC	26 Aug, 22:46 UTC	0.4 h	—	n/a

Why this page exists

A receipt only enters the ledger if its prediction timestamp (`predicted_at`) precedes the actual arrival — enforced in the query, not by editorial choice.
Broadcast ETAs more than 168 h from the actual arrival are marked as AIS sentinel values and excluded from the head-to-head, as documented on /methodology.
Aggregated accuracy (RMSE/MAE per port and window) lives on /precision.