ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇳🇱 Rotterdam

How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Rotterdam, measured on closed voyages over the last 30 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.

Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)

6.62 h

MAE 9.62 h · 987 voyages

Broadcast ETA (RMSE)

59.63 h

crew-declared, 411 voyages (same set)

Our advantage

88.9 %

lower error than the broadcast ETA

Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days from the actual arrival are excluded as AIS sentinel / placeholder values (276 excluded). Both figures are computed on the same remaining voyage set — apples to apples.

Closed voyages

error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)


244660035	container	09/19, 10:44 PM UTC	1.74 h	34.76 h
244001324	product	09/19, 10:42 PM UTC	2.85 h	-17.31 h
205539990	container	09/19, 10:41 PM UTC	0.89 h	-2.70 h
269057351	product	09/19, 10:41 PM UTC	4.31 h	-16.22 h
218038720	product	09/19, 10:40 PM UTC	6.53 h	-181.90 h
244137310	container	09/19, 10:36 PM UTC	2.29 h	31.59 h
241203000	product	09/19, 10:34 PM UTC	3.63 h	-1934.57 h
205539990	container	09/19, 10:29 PM UTC	0.88 h	-2.49 h
269057351	product	09/19, 10:29 PM UTC	3.29 h	-49.09 h
211464830	product	09/19, 10:28 PM UTC	3.85 h	-611.47 h
205585490	container	09/19, 10:26 PM UTC	0.67 h	-32.67 h
269057007	product	09/19, 10:24 PM UTC	3.79 h	—
205551390	product	09/19, 10:23 PM UTC	4.03 h	0.44 h
210855000	chemical	09/19, 10:20 PM UTC	4.56 h	-79.34 h
253242295	product	09/19, 10:16 PM UTC	1.51 h	14.30 h
244660529	container	09/19, 10:14 PM UTC	9.54 h	—
244012151	container	09/19, 10:13 PM UTC	3.13 h	6559.77 h
244000575	container	09/19, 10:13 PM UTC	2.95 h	—
229535000	product	09/19, 10:13 PM UTC	9.28 h	-84.23 h
244105935	product	09/19, 10:12 PM UTC	9.44 h	-217.20 h
244101977	container	09/19, 10:08 PM UTC	3.36 h	2458.86 h
244660297	container	09/19, 10:07 PM UTC	1.95 h	—
269057316	product	09/19, 10:06 PM UTC	1.22 h	-0.07 h
244660566	container	09/19, 09:56 PM UTC	12.16 h	—
244022677	container	09/19, 09:55 PM UTC	1.34 h	1236.00 h
244650607	product	09/19, 09:54 PM UTC	4.26 h	8.52 h
229535000	product	09/19, 09:49 PM UTC	4.43 h	-83.82 h
244670043	container	09/19, 09:48 PM UTC	3.53 h	-87.21 h
244660035	container	09/19, 09:47 PM UTC	1.41 h	35.72 h
205539990	container	09/19, 09:45 PM UTC	1.55 h	-74.76 h
244620960	container	09/19, 09:43 PM UTC	1.46 h	56.80 h
232063064	product	09/19, 09:41 PM UTC	7.04 h	-125.69 h
244740814	container	09/19, 09:41 PM UTC	1.87 h	—
244810087	product	09/19, 09:38 PM UTC	1.88 h	-5.39 h
244376509	product	09/19, 09:34 PM UTC	2.03 h	-151.05 h
244010042	product	09/19, 09:30 PM UTC	1.57 h	-49.31 h
244620320	container	09/19, 09:30 PM UTC	3.82 h	—
244630651	product	09/19, 09:26 PM UTC	4.39 h	-18.79 h
269057139	product	09/19, 09:24 PM UTC	1.61 h	-8.78 h
244620320	container	09/19, 09:23 PM UTC	1.74 h	—
244000575	container	09/19, 09:19 PM UTC	1.59 h	—
269057472	product	09/19, 09:18 PM UTC	15.51 h	-44.36 h
244850360	container	09/19, 09:08 PM UTC	4.02 h	4343.85 h
244660545	container	09/19, 09:06 PM UTC	1.87 h	—
244670122	product	09/19, 09:05 PM UTC	2.47 h	-28.53 h
538009152	product	09/19, 09:04 PM UTC	1.74 h	-3.07 h
244030549	container	09/19, 09:03 PM UTC	1.91 h	3256.86 h
244710183	container	09/19, 09:03 PM UTC	1.22 h	-1.60 h
244006118	container	09/19, 08:56 PM UTC	1.73 h	-318.82 h
211173020	container	09/19, 08:53 PM UTC	1.57 h	2.11 h

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How it's measured

Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.