ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇪🇸 Valencia

How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Valencia, measured on closed voyages over the last 30 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.

Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)

3.31 h

MAE 4.12 h · 410 voyages

Broadcast ETA (RMSE)

74.10 h

crew-declared, 188 voyages (same set)

Our advantage

95.5 %

lower error than the broadcast ETA

Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days from the actual arrival are excluded as AIS sentinel / placeholder values (220 excluded). Both figures are computed on the same remaining voyage set — apples to apples.

Closed voyages

error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)


352004886	container	10/12, 01:51 AM UTC	0.31 h	-107.86 h
636021055	container	10/11, 09:30 PM UTC	0.02 h	-260.51 h
229699000	container	10/11, 05:44 PM UTC	0.37 h	2919.26 h
636024876	container	10/11, 04:16 PM UTC	-0.26 h	-38.28 h
215234000	container	10/11, 03:34 PM UTC	-0.15 h	-147.57 h
219614000	container	10/11, 12:02 PM UTC	-0.37 h	-2269.04 h
636020454	container	10/11, 11:56 AM UTC	-0.91 h	-166.94 h
210908000	product	10/11, 10:32 AM UTC	0.04 h	-52.55 h
477617700	container	10/11, 09:01 AM UTC	0.41 h	-2495.03 h
244850968	container	10/11, 08:42 AM UTC	-0.21 h	-88.71 h
636024940	container	10/11, 05:49 AM UTC	0.19 h	-24.83 h
636016986	container	10/11, 03:59 AM UTC	0.14 h	-716.99 h
255806492	container	10/11, 02:55 AM UTC	-0.21 h	-30.93 h
255806280	container	10/10, 10:54 PM UTC	0.60 h	-30.91 h
538005959	container	10/10, 10:48 PM UTC	-0.79 h	-1010.30 h
224127820	product	10/10, 10:06 PM UTC	-0.05 h	2201.89 h
212641000	container	10/10, 08:42 PM UTC	0.26 h	-328.70 h
636019292	container	10/10, 07:08 PM UTC	0.28 h	-48.65 h
636021472	container	10/10, 02:39 PM UTC	0.38 h	-582.66 h
636021596	container	10/10, 12:42 PM UTC	-0.39 h	-1079.71 h
538010119	container	10/10, 11:19 AM UTC	-0.30 h	-534.33 h
229548000	container	10/10, 06:50 AM UTC	-0.21 h	-603.84 h
247383300	general-cargo	10/10, 05:02 AM UTC	0.19 h	-96.53 h
372497000	container	10/10, 04:52 AM UTC	-0.17 h	-120.68 h
241298000	container	10/10, 04:21 AM UTC	-1.98 h	-1744.36 h
538090641	container	10/10, 03:58 AM UTC	-0.06 h	-243.48 h
636019221	container	10/09, 08:48 PM UTC	0.01 h	-31.81 h
224127820	product	10/09, 08:25 PM UTC	-9.71 h	2227.58 h
255806492	container	10/09, 07:58 PM UTC	-0.17 h	0.03 h
477183800	general-cargo	10/09, 04:06 PM UTC	-0.15 h	-1888.11 h
271050950	container	10/09, 11:01 AM UTC	-0.13 h	-125.03 h
255805984	container	10/09, 10:20 AM UTC	0.02 h	-88.35 h
210908000	product	10/09, 07:04 AM UTC	-0.71 h	-6.91 h
255915616	container	10/09, 07:04 AM UTC	0.23 h	-855.07 h
215219000	container	10/09, 05:35 AM UTC	0.08 h	-2335.60 h
477552700	container	10/08, 11:50 PM UTC	-0.22 h	-857.84 h
636019292	container	10/08, 10:57 PM UTC	0.06 h	-4.46 h
255784000	container	10/08, 10:56 PM UTC	0.73 h	-435.94 h
375241000	container	10/08, 07:00 PM UTC	-0.22 h	-74.01 h
636022103	container	10/08, 06:58 PM UTC	0.03 h	-2948.47 h
244985000	container	10/08, 06:41 PM UTC	-0.09 h	-458.69 h
224127820	product	10/08, 05:32 PM UTC	-0.27 h	2254.46 h
636021776	container	10/08, 04:41 PM UTC	-0.21 h	-0.70 h
247383600	container	10/08, 02:17 PM UTC	0.39 h	-87.53 h
219473000	product	10/08, 01:14 PM UTC	-0.11 h	-71.25 h
215177000	general-cargo	10/08, 10:37 AM UTC	-0.32 h	-1741.63 h
255806492	container	10/08, 10:27 AM UTC	0.34 h	-1551.95 h
255806280	container	10/08, 04:07 AM UTC	0.15 h	-187.12 h
256485000	container	10/07, 11:33 PM UTC	-0.35 h	-2691.56 h
249930000	product	10/07, 10:10 PM UTC	0.17 h	—

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How it's measured

Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.