ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇺🇸 New York / Newark
How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at New York / Newark, measured on closed voyages over the last 30 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.
Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)
298.48 h
MAE 135.73 h · 164 voyages
Broadcast ETA (RMSE)
40.30 h
crew-declared, 54 voyages (same set)
Gap
640.7 %
higher error than the broadcast ETA
Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days from the actual arrival are excluded as AIS sentinel / placeholder values (61 excluded). Both figures are computed on the same remaining voyage set — apples to apples.
Closed voyages
error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)| 477886800 | container | 08/26, 11:54 PM UTC | 2.10 h | -11.91 h |
| 354972000 | container | 08/26, 10:12 PM UTC | -0.16 h | -4.22 h |
| 366999412 | container | 08/26, 06:17 PM UTC | 0.02 h | — |
| 636025463 | container | 08/26, 04:00 PM UTC | 0.27 h | -2.00 h |
| 636019061 | container | 08/26, 03:15 PM UTC | 3.07 h | -3.26 h |
| 636024506 | container | 08/26, 12:08 PM UTC | 3.25 h | -4.15 h |
| 563293200 | container | 08/26, 10:56 AM UTC | 0.34 h | -2.94 h |
| 636092783 | container | 08/26, 10:08 AM UTC | 1.12 h | -2114.64 h |
| 563277100 | container | 08/26, 09:21 AM UTC | 0.80 h | -1297.37 h |
| 636093178 | general-cargo | 08/26, 07:35 AM UTC | 2.27 h | 102.41 h |
| 538009817 | container | 08/26, 02:04 AM UTC | 0.26 h | -1540.07 h |
| 563006800 | container | 08/25, 09:12 PM UTC | 1.05 h | -1387.70 h |
| 566956000 | container | 08/25, 07:10 PM UTC | -0.47 h | -1105.18 h |
| 366999412 | container | 08/25, 06:54 PM UTC | -0.10 h | — |
| 366999412 | container | 08/25, 06:03 PM UTC | -0.95 h | — |
| 636026193 | product | 08/25, 04:42 PM UTC | -0.16 h | -2.70 h |
| 338403000 | container | 08/25, 10:12 AM UTC | -1.54 h | -1779.20 h |
| 538005625 | container | 08/25, 09:13 AM UTC | 4.62 h | -1138.22 h |
| 367686920 | product | 08/25, 08:48 AM UTC | 1.24 h | — |
| 636023225 | container | 08/25, 12:30 AM UTC | -0.27 h | -2.51 h |
| 636015771 | container | 08/24, 11:08 PM UTC | -0.22 h | -3.15 h |
| 636093178 | general-cargo | 08/24, 06:46 PM UTC | 2.08 h | -2041.77 h |
| 366999412 | container | 08/24, 05:44 PM UTC | 0.60 h | — |
| 366999412 | container | 08/24, 05:18 PM UTC | 0.14 h | — |
| 366999412 | container | 08/24, 04:12 PM UTC | 1.02 h | — |
| 366999412 | container | 08/24, 11:20 AM UTC | 0.28 h | — |
| 636015445 | container | 08/24, 11:14 AM UTC | -0.04 h | -102.24 h |
| 367686920 | product | 08/24, 11:06 AM UTC | -2.04 h | — |
| 563292600 | container | 08/24, 10:56 AM UTC | 0.16 h | -2162.93 h |
| 636020494 | container | 08/24, 09:05 AM UTC | 0.42 h | -3.60 h |
| 218566000 | container | 08/23, 08:33 PM UTC | 0.85 h | -2126.06 h |
| 366999412 | container | 08/23, 06:58 PM UTC | -0.26 h | — |
| 538006871 | container | 08/23, 06:27 PM UTC | 2.26 h | -110.45 h |
| 366999412 | container | 08/23, 06:14 PM UTC | -0.36 h | — |
| 636021529 | container | 08/23, 04:53 PM UTC | 0.62 h | -1700.89 h |
| 338418000 | container | 08/23, 03:56 PM UTC | 0.98 h | -3.94 h |
| 229557000 | general-cargo | 08/23, 02:54 PM UTC | -2.73 h | -1159.90 h |
| 366999412 | container | 08/23, 11:03 AM UTC | -15.51 h | — |
| 636015819 | container | 08/23, 10:00 AM UTC | 3.22 h | -3.00 h |
| 636025251 | container | 08/23, 09:35 AM UTC | 0.29 h | -3.60 h |
| 563051200 | container | 08/23, 08:40 AM UTC | 1.61 h | -1040.66 h |
| 338078000 | container | 08/23, 03:29 AM UTC | -4.51 h | -1628.49 h |
| 229949000 | general-cargo | 08/22, 07:59 PM UTC | 0.32 h | -779.50 h |
| 366999412 | container | 08/22, 05:48 PM UTC | 0.48 h | — |
| 563219100 | container | 08/22, 05:24 PM UTC | -2193.27 h | -126.16 h |
| 255806358 | container | 08/22, 04:28 PM UTC | -664.65 h | -428.47 h |
| 565382000 | container | 08/22, 02:54 PM UTC | -1062.39 h | -1040.91 h |
| 636021013 | general-cargo | 08/22, 02:53 PM UTC | -1110.64 h | -1089.89 h |
| 431654000 | container | 08/22, 02:40 PM UTC | -2691.11 h | -871.18 h |
| 563217600 | container | 08/22, 02:36 PM UTC | -2379.20 h | -1045.61 h |
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How it's measured
- Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
- Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
- Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
- Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
- Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.