ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇮🇹 Trieste
How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Trieste, measured on closed voyages over the last 90 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.
Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)
22.03 h
MAE 8.31 h · 732 voyages
Broadcast ETA (RMSE)
61.94 h
crew-declared, 346 voyages (same set)
Our advantage
64.4 %
lower error than the broadcast ETA
Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days from the actual arrival are excluded as AIS sentinel / placeholder values (94 excluded). Both figures are computed on the same remaining voyage set — apples to apples.
Closed voyages
error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)| MMSI | Cargo | Arrival | Our error | Broadcast error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 538090688 | container | 07/12, 07:37 AM UTC | -95.65 h | -202.62 h |
| 356167000 | container | 07/12, 07:34 AM UTC | 4.49 h | -399.58 h |
| 271043165 | general-cargo | 07/12, 06:37 AM UTC | -56.44 h | — |
| 210070000 | general-cargo | 07/12, 06:00 AM UTC | 1.88 h | -19.50 h |
| 271000793 | general-cargo | 07/12, 05:25 AM UTC | -0.19 h | -81.43 h |
| 271045478 | general-cargo | 07/12, 04:43 AM UTC | 0.07 h | -398.73 h |
| 247383800 | container | 07/11, 10:47 PM UTC | -0.77 h | -138.55 h |
| 241770000 | product | 07/11, 05:19 PM UTC | -0.00 h | -23.82 h |
| 636019868 | general-cargo | 07/11, 11:35 AM UTC | 1.79 h | -35.57 h |
| 636020072 | product | 07/11, 11:34 AM UTC | -0.28 h | -124.57 h |
| 271050376 | general-cargo | 07/11, 10:32 AM UTC | 0.55 h | -96.55 h |
| 229752000 | container | 07/11, 08:41 AM UTC | 0.70 h | 0.31 h |
| 636020455 | container | 07/11, 08:38 AM UTC | 1.21 h | -515.64 h |
| 271046601 | general-cargo | 07/11, 04:54 AM UTC | -0.11 h | -142.66 h |
| 538010583 | container | 07/11, 12:15 AM UTC | 1.27 h | -1.26 h |
| 636019868 | general-cargo | 07/10, 04:11 PM UTC | -26.88 h | -16.17 h |
| 538007379 | product | 07/10, 01:08 PM UTC | 0.65 h | -30.15 h |
| 247489300 | chemical | 07/10, 11:57 AM UTC | 1.65 h | -41.46 h |
| 271049958 | general-cargo | 07/10, 10:58 AM UTC | 1.94 h | -9.97 h |
| 271043303 | general-cargo | 07/10, 10:40 AM UTC | -0.80 h | -0.42 h |
| 255806065 | general-cargo | 07/10, 09:46 AM UTC | 3.84 h | -0.78 h |
| 241994000 | container | 07/10, 08:06 AM UTC | 0.31 h | -485.10 h |
| 370618000 | container | 07/10, 06:27 AM UTC | 2.07 h | -42.46 h |
| 255806042 | container | 07/09, 01:36 PM UTC | 1.71 h | -27.61 h |
| 249157000 | container | 07/09, 01:33 PM UTC | -0.63 h | -1.06 h |
| 248592000 | general-cargo | 07/09, 01:30 PM UTC | -0.87 h | -93.50 h |
| 256571000 | container | 07/09, 09:09 AM UTC | -0.99 h | -45.16 h |
| 255815000 | general-cargo | 07/09, 07:23 AM UTC | 0.17 h | -82.39 h |
| 256010000 | container | 07/09, 06:17 AM UTC | 2.21 h | -675.29 h |
| 271049958 | general-cargo | 07/09, 04:57 AM UTC | 0.18 h | -526.96 h |
| 636015872 | container | 07/09, 04:18 AM UTC | 3.33 h | -1.06 h |
| 249157000 | container | 07/09, 02:34 AM UTC | -1.08 h | 3.42 h |
| 636024955 | container | 07/09, 02:23 AM UTC | 4.27 h | -100.39 h |
| 247241900 | container | 07/08, 10:52 PM UTC | -0.01 h | -87.87 h |
| 309022000 | product | 07/08, 07:32 PM UTC | 1.06 h | -21.55 h |
| 271043165 | general-cargo | 07/08, 04:17 PM UTC | -3.19 h | -78.30 h |
| 215588000 | container | 07/08, 11:56 AM UTC | 0.03 h | -185.44 h |
| 636021356 | container | 07/08, 10:39 AM UTC | 0.50 h | -30.66 h |
| 636020098 | product | 07/08, 09:09 AM UTC | -0.95 h | -4.66 h |
| 511100521 | container | 07/08, 08:24 AM UTC | 3.18 h | -370.40 h |
| 636016205 | container | 07/08, 07:36 AM UTC | 0.59 h | -219.62 h |
| 249157000 | container | 07/08, 07:36 AM UTC | 1.99 h | -0.61 h |
| 636019868 | general-cargo | 07/08, 05:25 AM UTC | -0.36 h | -2.42 h |
| 255806152 | general-cargo | 07/08, 04:26 AM UTC | 1.03 h | -20.45 h |
| 255806152 | general-cargo | 07/08, 03:21 AM UTC | -18.98 h | -126.85 h |
| 241751000 | product | 07/07, 07:59 PM UTC | 0.43 h | -0.99 h |
| 271046489 | general-cargo | 07/07, 07:20 PM UTC | 0.18 h | -437.09 h |
| 341546000 | container | 07/07, 06:46 PM UTC | -96.68 h | -122.78 h |
| 511100517 | container | 07/07, 01:17 PM UTC | 1.24 h | -8.30 h |
| 636019097 | container | 07/07, 12:04 PM UTC | 2.49 h | -44.08 h |
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How it's measured
- Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
- Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
- Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
- Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
- Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.