ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇳🇱 Rotterdam

How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Rotterdam, measured on closed voyages over the last 90 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.

Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)

6.61 h

MAE 9.62 h · 987 voyages

Broadcast ETA (RMSE)

59.78 h

crew-declared, 413 voyages (same set)

Our advantage

88.9 %

lower error than the broadcast ETA

Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days from the actual arrival are excluded as AIS sentinel / placeholder values (275 excluded). Both figures are computed on the same remaining voyage set — apples to apples.

Closed voyages

error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)


244620320	container	09/19, 11:21 PM UTC	3.50 h	—
205289790	product	09/19, 11:19 PM UTC	2.13 h	-1746.57 h
244101977	container	09/19, 11:16 PM UTC	1.30 h	2457.73 h
205569190	container	09/19, 11:13 PM UTC	5.97 h	—
244700512	container	09/19, 11:11 PM UTC	0.64 h	—
205473290	product	09/19, 11:09 PM UTC	8.84 h	-347.07 h
249702000	product	09/19, 11:07 PM UTC	1.45 h	-1463.12 h
244060875	container	09/19, 11:07 PM UTC	12.80 h	—
244750081	product	09/19, 11:02 PM UTC	5.16 h	-22.52 h
205569190	container	09/19, 11:01 PM UTC	4.41 h	—
244660035	container	09/19, 11:01 PM UTC	3.74 h	—
244700427	product	09/19, 11:00 PM UTC	5.75 h	-366.03 h
244000912	product	09/19, 10:57 PM UTC	3.49 h	-2.96 h
253242357	product	09/19, 10:57 PM UTC	2.00 h	-102.52 h
244670320	container	09/19, 10:56 PM UTC	0.43 h	-52.94 h
211645510	product	09/19, 10:54 PM UTC	3.61 h	-32.53 h
244710484	product	09/19, 10:54 PM UTC	8.42 h	-54.43 h
253242295	product	09/19, 10:51 PM UTC	3.18 h	13.70 h
244660035	container	09/19, 10:44 PM UTC	1.74 h	34.76 h
244001324	product	09/19, 10:42 PM UTC	2.85 h	-17.31 h
205539990	container	09/19, 10:41 PM UTC	0.89 h	-2.70 h
269057351	product	09/19, 10:41 PM UTC	4.31 h	-16.22 h
218038720	product	09/19, 10:40 PM UTC	6.53 h	-181.90 h
244137310	container	09/19, 10:36 PM UTC	2.29 h	31.59 h
241203000	product	09/19, 10:34 PM UTC	3.63 h	-1934.57 h
205539990	container	09/19, 10:29 PM UTC	0.88 h	-2.49 h
269057351	product	09/19, 10:29 PM UTC	3.29 h	-49.09 h
211464830	product	09/19, 10:28 PM UTC	3.85 h	-611.47 h
205585490	container	09/19, 10:26 PM UTC	0.67 h	-32.67 h
269057007	product	09/19, 10:24 PM UTC	3.79 h	—
205551390	product	09/19, 10:23 PM UTC	4.03 h	0.44 h
210855000	chemical	09/19, 10:20 PM UTC	4.56 h	-79.34 h
253242295	product	09/19, 10:16 PM UTC	1.51 h	14.30 h
244660529	container	09/19, 10:14 PM UTC	9.54 h	—
244012151	container	09/19, 10:13 PM UTC	3.13 h	6559.77 h
244000575	container	09/19, 10:13 PM UTC	2.95 h	—
229535000	product	09/19, 10:13 PM UTC	9.28 h	-84.23 h
244105935	product	09/19, 10:12 PM UTC	9.44 h	-217.20 h
244101977	container	09/19, 10:08 PM UTC	3.36 h	2458.86 h
244660297	container	09/19, 10:07 PM UTC	1.95 h	—
269057316	product	09/19, 10:06 PM UTC	1.22 h	-0.07 h
244660566	container	09/19, 09:56 PM UTC	12.16 h	—
244022677	container	09/19, 09:55 PM UTC	1.34 h	1236.00 h
244650607	product	09/19, 09:54 PM UTC	4.26 h	8.52 h
229535000	product	09/19, 09:49 PM UTC	4.43 h	-83.82 h
244670043	container	09/19, 09:48 PM UTC	3.53 h	-87.21 h
244660035	container	09/19, 09:47 PM UTC	1.41 h	35.72 h
205539990	container	09/19, 09:45 PM UTC	1.55 h	-74.76 h
244620960	container	09/19, 09:43 PM UTC	1.46 h	56.80 h
232063064	product	09/19, 09:41 PM UTC	7.04 h	-125.69 h

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How it's measured

Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.