ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇲🇾 Port Klang
How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Port Klang, measured on closed voyages over the last 90 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.
Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)
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MAE — · 0 voyages
Broadcast ETA (RMSE)
Building…
only 0 comparable voyages so far (need 20)
Gap
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benchmark builds as more voyages close
Closed voyages
error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)No closed voyages in this window yet — the benchmark fills as vessels complete their voyages to Port Klang.
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How it's measured
- Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
- Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
- Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
- Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
- Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.