ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇬🇧 Milford Haven
How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Milford Haven, measured on closed voyages over the last 90 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.
Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)
41.55 h
MAE 17.97 h · 27 voyages
Broadcast ETA (RMSE)
Building…
only 12 comparable voyages so far (need 20)
Gap
—
benchmark builds as more voyages close
Closed voyages
error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)| MMSI | Cargo | Arrival | Our error | Broadcast error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 244066000 | product | 07/12, 03:01 AM UTC | -78.17 h | — |
| 244046000 | product | 07/08, 06:43 PM UTC | 3.83 h | -22.73 h |
| 255915968 | product | 07/08, 03:32 PM UTC | 5.38 h | -1003.54 h |
| 241963000 | product | 07/08, 02:18 PM UTC | 7.50 h | -92.30 h |
| 244056000 | product | 07/08, 11:55 AM UTC | -8.29 h | -882.93 h |
| 352006501 | product | 07/08, 08:41 AM UTC | -34.16 h | -107.69 h |
| 636021956 | product | 07/08, 01:26 AM UTC | -1.15 h | — |
| 244066000 | product | 07/07, 01:32 AM UTC | -5.05 h | -20.05 h |
| 538007646 | product | 07/06, 06:08 AM UTC | -18.69 h | -26.14 h |
| 241445000 | product | 07/02, 06:53 PM UTC | -10.89 h | — |
| 249224000 | product | 06/28, 05:17 AM UTC | -15.17 h | -12.29 h |
| 241445000 | product | 06/26, 12:40 AM UTC | -34.81 h | -89.67 h |
| 255806263 | product | 06/25, 01:34 AM UTC | 0.82 h | — |
| 244066000 | product | 06/24, 11:47 PM UTC | -2.40 h | -132.80 h |
| 249224000 | product | 06/20, 07:29 AM UTC | 0.22 h | — |
| 232064564 | product | 06/17, 07:02 PM UTC | -187.76 h | — |
| 255915981 | product | 06/04, 10:48 AM UTC | 0.37 h | -32.81 h |
| 219357000 | product | 05/30, 12:17 AM UTC | -1.65 h | -23.29 h |
| 538005270 | product | 05/27, 08:27 AM UTC | -40.36 h | -78.46 h |
| 255915968 | product | 05/25, 08:43 PM UTC | -0.52 h | -89.72 h |
| 538010289 | product | 05/25, 06:25 PM UTC | -9.19 h | — |
| 244333000 | product | 05/25, 06:51 AM UTC | -0.27 h | — |
| 245094000 | product | 05/24, 08:00 PM UTC | 0.68 h | — |
| 244056000 | product | 05/24, 09:24 AM UTC | 1.00 h | — |
| 255916541 | product | 05/24, 03:50 AM UTC | -15.70 h | — |
| 219357000 | product | 05/23, 09:21 PM UTC | -0.46 h | — |
| 244333000 | product | 05/08, 06:49 AM UTC | 0.69 h | — |
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How it's measured
- Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
- Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
- Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
- Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
- Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.