ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇦🇪 Jebel Ali
How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Jebel Ali, measured on closed voyages over the last 90 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.
Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)
2739.96 h
MAE 1937.56 h · 2 voyages
Broadcast ETA (RMSE)
Building…
only 0 comparable voyages so far (need 20)
Gap
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benchmark builds as more voyages close
Closed voyages
error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)| 671153100 | container | 10/08, 09:35 PM UTC | -3874.89 h | — |
| 352006371 | container | 10/07, 08:33 AM UTC | 0.22 h | — |
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How it's measured
- Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
- Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
- Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
- Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
- Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.