ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇬🇧 Felixstowe

How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Felixstowe, measured on closed voyages over the last 90 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.

Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)

10.15 h

MAE 15.93 h · 416 voyages

Broadcast ETA (RMSE)

33.17 h

crew-declared, 357 voyages (same set)

Our advantage

69.4 %

lower error than the broadcast ETA

Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days from the actual arrival are excluded as AIS sentinel / placeholder values (50 excluded). Both figures are computed on the same remaining voyage set — apples to apples.

Closed voyages

error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)


220284000	container	08/26, 09:25 PM UTC	-0.22 h	-11.76 h
416071000	container	08/26, 08:53 PM UTC	-0.20 h	-1858.39 h
230925000	container	08/26, 05:28 PM UTC	0.29 h	-11.98 h
277574000	general-cargo	08/26, 02:09 PM UTC	-0.02 h	-12.40 h
304081008	container	08/26, 12:16 PM UTC	-19.27 h	—
636021992	container	08/26, 04:06 AM UTC	-0.24 h	-1369.11 h
266248000	container	08/26, 02:55 AM UTC	0.12 h	-11.92 h
277548000	general-cargo	08/26, 02:52 AM UTC	-0.09 h	-10.88 h
636022443	container	08/25, 09:39 PM UTC	0.10 h	-3.66 h
220284000	container	08/25, 09:01 PM UTC	-0.24 h	-11.36 h
230925000	container	08/25, 05:17 PM UTC	1.00 h	-11.79 h
304081008	container	08/25, 04:41 PM UTC	0.28 h	-103.69 h
277574000	general-cargo	08/25, 02:10 PM UTC	-0.07 h	-12.42 h
266248000	container	08/25, 02:58 AM UTC	0.42 h	-21.47 h
277548000	general-cargo	08/25, 02:53 AM UTC	-0.16 h	-145.14 h
304081008	container	08/25, 01:32 AM UTC	0.45 h	—
220284000	container	08/24, 09:06 PM UTC	-0.09 h	-15.95 h
636022451	container	08/24, 09:11 AM UTC	0.04 h	-1.20 h
563333300	container	08/24, 05:32 AM UTC	-0.34 h	-2.53 h
230925000	container	08/24, 02:55 AM UTC	0.94 h	-117.43 h
277574000	general-cargo	08/23, 09:17 PM UTC	-0.08 h	-14.78 h
304081008	container	08/23, 09:14 PM UTC	-0.45 h	-60.24 h
311001150	container	08/23, 04:56 PM UTC	-0.01 h	-2167.69 h
255915962	container	08/23, 12:45 PM UTC	0.02 h	-590.76 h
305844000	container	08/23, 07:32 AM UTC	0.53 h	-2066.54 h
220284000	container	08/22, 09:25 PM UTC	0.03 h	-83.75 h
255917255	container	08/22, 08:07 PM UTC	-0.04 h	-25.12 h
266248000	container	08/19, 03:05 AM UTC	0.05 h	-12.09 h
277574000	general-cargo	08/19, 02:57 AM UTC	-0.05 h	-0.87 h
232063038	product	08/18, 11:58 PM UTC	2.03 h	-1567.98 h
220284000	container	08/18, 09:04 PM UTC	-0.14 h	-11.42 h
230925000	container	08/18, 05:26 PM UTC	1.32 h	-11.93 h
277548000	general-cargo	08/18, 02:13 PM UTC	-0.13 h	-12.47 h
277574000	general-cargo	08/18, 03:14 AM UTC	-0.38 h	-1.15 h
266248000	container	08/18, 02:55 AM UTC	-0.05 h	-357.42 h
636022722	container	08/18, 02:48 AM UTC	0.01 h	-2.30 h
220284000	container	08/17, 09:02 PM UTC	-0.08 h	-299.30 h
235054097	container	08/17, 02:01 PM UTC	0.03 h	-0.02 h
636016125	container	08/17, 09:30 AM UTC	-0.30 h	-1981.51 h
235054097	container	08/17, 08:45 AM UTC	0.93 h	5.23 h
636023265	container	08/17, 07:57 AM UTC	-2099.60 h	-1381.95 h
230925000	container	08/17, 07:52 AM UTC	-297.89 h	-290.38 h
277548000	general-cargo	08/17, 07:50 AM UTC	-281.97 h	-294.09 h
215878000	container	08/17, 07:49 AM UTC	-1407.26 h	-1399.81 h
314826000	container	08/05, 12:18 PM UTC	-31.74 h	-54.31 h
277574000	general-cargo	08/05, 02:52 AM UTC	-0.18 h	-12.79 h
220284000	container	08/04, 09:02 PM UTC	-0.15 h	-11.38 h
230925000	container	08/04, 05:26 PM UTC	0.04 h	-11.94 h
277548000	general-cargo	08/04, 02:06 PM UTC	-0.11 h	-11.35 h
277574000	general-cargo	08/04, 02:51 AM UTC	-0.05 h	-73.60 h

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How it's measured

Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.