ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇿🇦 Durban

How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Durban, measured on closed voyages over the last 90 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.

Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)

20.67 h

MAE 38.17 h · 799 voyages

Broadcast ETA (RMSE)

56.90 h

crew-declared, 540 voyages (same set)

Our advantage

63.7 %

lower error than the broadcast ETA

Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days from the actual arrival are excluded as AIS sentinel / placeholder values (240 excluded). Both figures are computed on the same remaining voyage set — apples to apples.

Closed voyages

error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)


247437400	product	08/26, 09:58 PM UTC	-1.92 h	-5.97 h
249187000	product	08/26, 08:36 PM UTC	-0.29 h	-7.61 h
636020962	container	08/26, 08:08 PM UTC	0.13 h	-1906.15 h
357997000	container	08/26, 06:29 PM UTC	-0.07 h	-77.49 h
247437400	product	08/26, 03:12 PM UTC	-0.46 h	0.79 h
636023923	container	08/26, 01:50 PM UTC	0.17 h	-44.34 h
249112000	container	08/26, 01:25 PM UTC	-1.10 h	-393.43 h
636023923	container	08/26, 10:43 AM UTC	3.18 h	-41.23 h
636023923	container	08/26, 09:20 AM UTC	0.54 h	-39.84 h
311001045	container	08/26, 09:15 AM UTC	-0.70 h	-123.26 h
601890200	product	08/26, 09:14 AM UTC	-0.70 h	3681.67 h
636023923	container	08/26, 08:55 AM UTC	1.91 h	—
636023923	container	08/26, 08:44 AM UTC	3.26 h	-39.24 h
356251000	product	08/26, 08:02 AM UTC	0.03 h	-600.04 h
538010372	general-cargo	08/26, 07:32 AM UTC	-0.28 h	-820.54 h
601890200	product	08/26, 12:12 AM UTC	-0.32 h	3690.72 h
563336200	container	08/25, 11:42 PM UTC	-1.45 h	-11.70 h
538012382	container	08/25, 09:13 PM UTC	-0.39 h	1.78 h
601045610	chemical	08/25, 08:58 PM UTC	-32.74 h	-1140.97 h
229396000	container	08/25, 06:22 PM UTC	0.94 h	-58.37 h
240963000	container	08/25, 02:01 PM UTC	-0.53 h	-143.02 h
538009726	container	08/25, 10:46 AM UTC	-0.22 h	-601.28 h
636019434	container	08/25, 10:32 AM UTC	-0.21 h	-1579.55 h
352002141	container	08/25, 09:59 AM UTC	-6.38 h	42.01 h
538012737	product	08/25, 07:53 AM UTC	0.07 h	-83.90 h
374678000	container	08/25, 07:47 AM UTC	-1.43 h	-999.29 h
538012737	product	08/25, 05:18 AM UTC	3.92 h	-81.31 h
636026006	container	08/25, 02:29 AM UTC	-0.01 h	-116.49 h
538012737	product	08/25, 01:40 AM UTC	2.25 h	-77.68 h
636026006	container	08/25, 12:53 AM UTC	2.15 h	-1910.90 h
477534200	container	08/25, 12:42 AM UTC	0.14 h	-72.71 h
538012737	product	08/25, 12:18 AM UTC	4.38 h	-76.32 h
538012737	product	08/24, 11:00 PM UTC	4.06 h	-75.00 h
477534200	container	08/24, 10:00 PM UTC	0.98 h	-70.01 h
636023923	container	08/24, 06:59 PM UTC	5.31 h	-1.49 h
636092848	general-cargo	08/24, 06:36 PM UTC	-0.32 h	-2.60 h
636023923	container	08/24, 04:55 PM UTC	4.28 h	-1505.93 h
636092848	general-cargo	08/24, 03:51 PM UTC	2.87 h	0.14 h
636092848	general-cargo	08/24, 03:17 PM UTC	3.22 h	-1608.30 h
311040800	container	08/24, 03:09 PM UTC	0.05 h	-14.16 h
309075000	container	08/24, 02:27 PM UTC	0.53 h	-4.46 h
538009584	product	08/24, 12:17 PM UTC	-0.63 h	-494.79 h
538005170	container	08/24, 11:56 AM UTC	2.09 h	-6.45 h
671362100	container	08/24, 10:00 AM UTC	-0.60 h	6907.98 h
538012192	container	08/24, 08:21 AM UTC	0.14 h	-2.86 h
538090451	container	08/24, 07:56 AM UTC	1.65 h	-2177.95 h
538012192	container	08/24, 06:35 AM UTC	2.19 h	-1.10 h
642122013	product	08/24, 12:54 AM UTC	-0.16 h	-87.92 h
314101000	product	08/23, 09:52 PM UTC	1.04 h	-1437.87 h
538009711	container	08/23, 09:46 PM UTC	1.59 h	-149.77 h

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How it's measured

Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.