ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇩🇪 Bremerhaven

How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Bremerhaven, measured on closed voyages over the last 90 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.

Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)

16.00 h

MAE 38.99 h · 994 voyages

Broadcast ETA (RMSE)

53.51 h

crew-declared, 385 voyages (same set)

Our advantage

70.1 %

lower error than the broadcast ETA

Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days from the actual arrival are excluded as AIS sentinel / placeholder values (315 excluded). Both figures are computed on the same remaining voyage set — apples to apples.

Closed voyages

error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)


255916026	container	08/26, 11:52 PM UTC	-0.46 h	-3.87 h
355137000	container	08/26, 11:37 PM UTC	0.24 h	-42.62 h
209731000	container	08/26, 11:02 PM UTC	0.83 h	-17.04 h
211480540	product	08/26, 10:39 PM UTC	-0.66 h	6761.35 h
210717000	container	08/26, 10:30 PM UTC	0.32 h	—
248131000	container	08/26, 09:53 PM UTC	-0.41 h	—
210717000	container	08/26, 09:49 PM UTC	-0.19 h	7.17 h
255806352	general-cargo	08/26, 09:26 PM UTC	0.37 h	-4.44 h
219836000	container	08/26, 09:22 PM UTC	1.27 h	-4.62 h
211876190	product	08/26, 08:48 PM UTC	0.49 h	—
636023562	container	08/26, 08:20 PM UTC	1.42 h	-1924.35 h
211480540	product	08/26, 07:52 PM UTC	-0.08 h	6764.12 h
211876190	product	08/26, 07:30 PM UTC	0.49 h	-19.51 h
636020533	container	08/26, 07:30 PM UTC	1.85 h	-810.51 h
563229400	container	08/26, 07:18 PM UTC	2.27 h	-1136.31 h
209275000	product	08/26, 06:51 PM UTC	-0.56 h	-1.86 h
211812980	product	08/26, 05:51 PM UTC	-0.12 h	66.15 h
211812980	product	08/26, 05:37 PM UTC	0.03 h	66.38 h
205535590	product	08/26, 04:36 PM UTC	1.09 h	—
211428750	product	08/26, 03:20 PM UTC	0.01 h	3194.77 h
211428750	product	08/26, 02:48 PM UTC	0.05 h	3195.29 h
211428750	product	08/26, 12:27 PM UTC	-0.56 h	3197.63 h
211475930	container	08/26, 11:48 AM UTC	-0.31 h	6559.20 h
205535590	product	08/26, 11:40 AM UTC	2.88 h	6793.46 h
205535590	product	08/26, 10:14 AM UTC	0.07 h	—
255916313	container	08/26, 10:02 AM UTC	0.68 h	-4.05 h
211480540	product	08/26, 09:17 AM UTC	-0.21 h	—
210717000	container	08/26, 08:41 AM UTC	-0.02 h	-14.69 h
210717000	container	08/26, 07:37 AM UTC	0.85 h	-13.63 h
211475930	container	08/26, 07:35 AM UTC	-0.77 h	6563.40 h
211480540	product	08/26, 07:17 AM UTC	-0.10 h	—
211202400	container	08/26, 07:12 AM UTC	-0.32 h	0.80 h
218549000	general-cargo	08/26, 07:01 AM UTC	0.55 h	-689.02 h
636026053	container	08/26, 06:46 AM UTC	0.05 h	—
211428750	product	08/26, 06:25 AM UTC	-0.10 h	3203.68 h
636026053	container	08/26, 06:04 AM UTC	0.04 h	-0.08 h
211475930	container	08/26, 05:53 AM UTC	-0.43 h	—
211428750	product	08/26, 05:53 AM UTC	0.61 h	—
218176000	container	08/26, 05:48 AM UTC	-0.33 h	-47.81 h
211428750	product	08/26, 05:48 AM UTC	0.90 h	—
211812980	product	08/26, 05:15 AM UTC	-0.23 h	78.75 h
218172000	container	08/26, 04:43 AM UTC	-0.24 h	-12.23 h
255805907	container	08/26, 02:38 AM UTC	-0.53 h	—
255805907	container	08/26, 01:40 AM UTC	0.01 h	-653.67 h
367606000	container	08/25, 11:54 PM UTC	2.09 h	-879.90 h
355948000	container	08/25, 11:31 PM UTC	0.34 h	21.47 h
205535590	product	08/25, 09:51 PM UTC	1.49 h	—
205535590	product	08/25, 09:27 PM UTC	-0.55 h	6807.68 h
210717000	container	08/25, 09:10 PM UTC	-0.34 h	-3.18 h
210717000	container	08/25, 08:54 PM UTC	-0.35 h	-1676.90 h

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How it's measured

Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.