ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇬🇧 Southampton

How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Southampton, measured on closed voyages over the last 7 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.

Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)

17.62 h

MAE 2.14 h · 54 voyages

Broadcast ETA (RMSE)

51.44 h

crew-declared, 28 voyages (same set)

Our advantage

65.8 %

lower error than the broadcast ETA

Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days from the actual arrival are excluded as AIS sentinel / placeholder values (18 excluded). Both figures are computed on the same remaining voyage set — apples to apples.

Closed voyages

error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)


253834000	product	08/26, 01:06 PM UTC	2.06 h	-0.11 h
232019192	container	08/26, 12:31 PM UTC	-0.01 h	—
232019192	container	08/26, 12:01 PM UTC	-0.04 h	5843.97 h
232019192	container	08/26, 09:07 AM UTC	0.09 h	5846.87 h
235040503	chemical	08/26, 06:02 AM UTC	0.34 h	0.70 h
232019192	container	08/26, 06:01 AM UTC	0.07 h	5849.98 h
232019192	container	08/26, 03:24 AM UTC	0.29 h	5852.59 h
256661000	product	08/25, 11:18 PM UTC	1.82 h	-155.31 h
235007880	chemical	08/25, 07:03 PM UTC	-0.36 h	-8.06 h
255915730	general-cargo	08/25, 04:38 PM UTC	-0.38 h	-2.64 h
235009804	container	08/25, 11:21 AM UTC	0.26 h	—
636019982	container	08/25, 10:33 AM UTC	0.22 h	-3.22 h
235007413	chemical	08/25, 10:22 AM UTC	0.08 h	-14.38 h
303210000	container	08/25, 07:00 AM UTC	0.52 h	-2.76 h
538011676	container	08/25, 06:29 AM UTC	0.03 h	-3.49 h
245889000	product	08/25, 03:33 AM UTC	-0.09 h	-1233.56 h
248941000	product	08/24, 10:37 PM UTC	0.16 h	-58.62 h
247529100	product	08/24, 05:04 PM UTC	1.28 h	-161.58 h
235007880	chemical	08/24, 04:09 PM UTC	0.12 h	-18.66 h
440161000	container	08/24, 03:59 PM UTC	-0.05 h	-12.00 h
232019192	container	08/24, 03:21 PM UTC	-0.03 h	5888.65 h
235007413	chemical	08/24, 03:09 PM UTC	0.39 h	—
232019192	container	08/24, 03:02 PM UTC	-0.02 h	5888.96 h
235009804	container	08/24, 01:08 PM UTC	0.06 h	—
235009804	container	08/24, 01:04 PM UTC	0.23 h	—
215760000	product	08/24, 12:41 PM UTC	2.19 h	-21.70 h
232019192	container	08/24, 12:09 PM UTC	-0.18 h	5891.84 h
247487800	chemical	08/24, 10:55 AM UTC	0.18 h	-989.93 h
244534000	container	08/24, 09:56 AM UTC	0.36 h	-3.95 h
232019192	container	08/24, 09:09 AM UTC	0.09 h	5894.85 h
241649000	product	08/24, 08:11 AM UTC	2.30 h	-3.69 h
235009804	container	08/24, 07:40 AM UTC	0.76 h	—
232019192	container	08/24, 06:08 AM UTC	-0.17 h	—
232019192	container	08/24, 06:03 AM UTC	-0.22 h	5897.94 h
232019192	container	08/24, 03:18 AM UTC	0.23 h	5900.68 h
305054300	container	08/23, 07:15 PM UTC	0.17 h	-616.26 h
247373700	product	08/23, 06:30 PM UTC	0.69 h	-0.50 h
212637000	container	08/23, 06:28 PM UTC	0.34 h	-934.98 h
235009956	chemical	08/23, 04:16 PM UTC	-0.11 h	0.22 h
228397700	container	08/23, 04:10 PM UTC	-0.26 h	-3.18 h
211100000	container	08/23, 12:43 PM UTC	0.54 h	-0.72 h
235007413	chemical	08/23, 11:53 AM UTC	-0.03 h	-28.40 h
338058000	container	08/23, 11:18 AM UTC	0.23 h	-1470.81 h
235009804	container	08/23, 10:11 AM UTC	-0.05 h	—
235040503	chemical	08/23, 08:53 AM UTC	-0.19 h	1.10 h
235009956	chemical	08/23, 08:44 AM UTC	0.82 h	-46.66 h
235007413	chemical	08/23, 05:46 AM UTC	0.25 h	-22.27 h
636017870	container	08/23, 03:13 AM UTC	0.05 h	-1243.23 h
440144000	container	08/23, 01:26 AM UTC	0.40 h	-2151.44 h
247416300	container	08/22, 07:13 PM UTC	0.22 h	-993.22 h

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How it's measured

Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.