ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇺🇸 New Orleans / Lower Mississippi
How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at New Orleans / Lower Mississippi, measured on closed voyages over the last 7 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.
Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)
128.91 h
MAE 36.91 h · 17 voyages
Broadcast ETA (RMSE)
Building…
only 5 comparable voyages so far (need 20)
Gap
—
benchmark builds as more voyages close
Closed voyages
error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)| 367006230 | product | 08/24, 01:13 PM UTC | 1.90 h | — |
| 367379810 | container | 08/24, 01:06 PM UTC | -3.20 h | — |
| 636020525 | container | 08/24, 12:56 PM UTC | 1.14 h | -11.95 h |
| 367006230 | product | 08/24, 12:28 PM UTC | -0.63 h | — |
| 367379810 | container | 08/24, 11:24 AM UTC | -1.19 h | — |
| 636016986 | container | 08/24, 10:16 AM UTC | -4.49 h | -11.27 h |
| 367379810 | container | 08/24, 08:57 AM UTC | 3.17 h | — |
| 538011265 | container | 08/24, 08:51 AM UTC | 12.97 h | -44.85 h |
| 368253470 | container | 08/24, 06:28 AM UTC | -20.57 h | -20.48 h |
| 563152900 | product | 08/24, 04:43 AM UTC | 7.82 h | — |
| 636021440 | general-cargo | 08/23, 03:06 PM UTC | -4.17 h | -9.11 h |
| 367379810 | container | 08/23, 12:28 PM UTC | 8.69 h | — |
| 367379810 | container | 08/23, 09:56 AM UTC | 7.78 h | — |
| 367379810 | container | 08/23, 09:50 AM UTC | 4.18 h | — |
| 636021279 | container | 08/23, 06:43 AM UTC | 14.43 h | — |
| 367006230 | product | 08/23, 05:44 AM UTC | -530.50 h | — |
| 538012307 | container | 08/23, 05:02 AM UTC | 0.59 h | — |
See it on a live desk
Predicted ETAs, congestion and sanctions screening across 51 ports — try it in one click, no signup.
How it's measured
- Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
- Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
- Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
- Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
- Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.