ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇧🇪 Antwerp

How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Antwerp, measured on closed voyages over the last 7 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.

Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)

12.77 h

MAE 7.50 h · 985 voyages

Broadcast ETA (RMSE)

57.67 h

crew-declared, 393 voyages (same set)

Our advantage

77.9 %

lower error than the broadcast ETA

Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days from the actual arrival are excluded as AIS sentinel / placeholder values (190 excluded). Both figures are computed on the same remaining voyage set — apples to apples.

Closed voyages

error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)


244660477	product	10/12, 05:19 AM UTC	-0.05 h	-41.00 h
205553690	container	10/12, 05:19 AM UTC	0.59 h	-299.74 h
205528990	product	10/12, 05:16 AM UTC	-0.60 h	1.33 h
256227000	product	10/12, 05:11 AM UTC	0.13 h	-3293.69 h
211501820	container	10/12, 05:06 AM UTC	0.72 h	6150.89 h
244700884	product	10/12, 05:06 AM UTC	1.78 h	—
205045800	product	10/12, 05:04 AM UTC	0.64 h	6185.92 h
244690052	container	10/12, 05:01 AM UTC	-0.32 h	-53.15 h
244670512	container	10/12, 04:59 AM UTC	-0.35 h	—
244730740	container	10/12, 04:57 AM UTC	-0.28 h	-330.44 h
205566190	container	10/12, 04:53 AM UTC	0.33 h	-0.30 h
244002669	product	10/12, 04:53 AM UTC	1.10 h	-31.16 h
538004996	container	10/12, 04:52 AM UTC	1.07 h	-64.37 h
205267390	product	10/12, 04:52 AM UTC	3.05 h	—
205543790	product	10/12, 04:51 AM UTC	3.05 h	—
205314890	container	10/12, 04:44 AM UTC	0.58 h	—
253000057	product	10/12, 04:41 AM UTC	7.37 h	-835.06 h
205220190	container	10/12, 04:40 AM UTC	-0.00 h	-575.86 h
205517990	product	10/12, 04:31 AM UTC	3.32 h	—
636016302	product	10/12, 04:23 AM UTC	1.17 h	-11.39 h
205543390	container	10/12, 04:22 AM UTC	1.55 h	—
205529590	container	10/12, 04:17 AM UTC	1.91 h	4.88 h
205450690	container	10/12, 04:16 AM UTC	1.97 h	4736.97 h
244710325	container	10/12, 04:16 AM UTC	2.08 h	10.53 h
244039456	container	10/12, 04:16 AM UTC	-0.06 h	-425.22 h
244690052	container	10/12, 04:10 AM UTC	0.13 h	-52.30 h
205578790	container	10/12, 04:07 AM UTC	1.51 h	—
244076909	container	10/12, 04:04 AM UTC	0.20 h	—
253242276	container	10/12, 04:04 AM UTC	-0.36 h	—
244039456	container	10/12, 04:03 AM UTC	-0.50 h	—
244710207	product	10/12, 04:03 AM UTC	-1.52 h	-38.40 h
244780045	product	10/12, 04:00 AM UTC	-1.22 h	—
352003272	chemical	10/12, 03:59 AM UTC	-0.30 h	—
244040891	product	10/12, 03:58 AM UTC	1.94 h	-650.06 h
205218590	product	10/12, 03:56 AM UTC	3.85 h	—
244076909	container	10/12, 03:53 AM UTC	-0.12 h	—
244660065	container	10/12, 03:47 AM UTC	2.24 h	—
211530930	product	10/12, 03:44 AM UTC	1.31 h	—
253242285	product	10/12, 03:43 AM UTC	0.68 h	-143.82 h
244039456	container	10/12, 03:40 AM UTC	-0.87 h	—
244660108	container	10/12, 03:40 AM UTC	1.78 h	5876.33 h
205590790	container	10/12, 03:35 AM UTC	-1.05 h	7.86 h
244830333	product	10/12, 03:33 AM UTC	-0.42 h	15.98 h
244504782	product	10/12, 03:33 AM UTC	0.82 h	—
244002553	container	10/12, 03:30 AM UTC	1.50 h	—
244650607	product	10/12, 03:30 AM UTC	-0.32 h	—
205218590	product	10/12, 03:19 AM UTC	-2.04 h	-499.05 h
636022343	product	10/12, 03:17 AM UTC	-0.41 h	159.71 h
244039456	container	10/12, 03:14 AM UTC	-0.44 h	—
244670312	product	10/12, 03:03 AM UTC	2.65 h	—

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How it's measured

Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.