ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇪🇸 Algeciras
How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Algeciras, measured on closed voyages over the last 7 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.
Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)
373.83 h
MAE 173.48 h · 18 voyages
Broadcast ETA (RMSE)
Building…
only 3 comparable voyages so far (need 20)
Gap
—
benchmark builds as more voyages close
Closed voyages
error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)| 247238700 | product | 08/26, 06:53 AM UTC | -16.89 h | — |
| 244850968 | container | 08/26, 05:17 AM UTC | 1.06 h | -141.28 h |
| 224932000 | product | 08/26, 04:55 AM UTC | -190.83 h | — |
| 209613000 | container | 08/26, 01:19 AM UTC | 1.70 h | -158.32 h |
| 232043368 | container | 08/26, 12:14 AM UTC | 2.27 h | — |
| 210707000 | container | 08/26, 12:08 AM UTC | 1.93 h | -194.48 h |
| 224879000 | container | 08/26, 12:01 AM UTC | -2.15 h | -266.52 h |
| 565449000 | container | 08/25, 10:59 PM UTC | -1140.09 h | -1378.99 h |
| 636093137 | general-cargo | 08/25, 10:58 PM UTC | -3.68 h | -6.97 h |
| 538005089 | product | 08/25, 10:42 PM UTC | -75.41 h | -1322.70 h |
| 256592000 | container | 08/25, 01:53 PM UTC | -42.59 h | -565.64 h |
| 563032900 | container | 08/25, 12:50 PM UTC | 0.53 h | -1758.84 h |
| 413149000 | general-cargo | 08/25, 12:50 PM UTC | -2.30 h | -704.83 h |
| 277562000 | container | 08/25, 12:40 PM UTC | -921.89 h | -850.67 h |
| 249024000 | product | 08/25, 12:06 PM UTC | -155.03 h | 3106.89 h |
| 636093027 | container | 08/23, 05:02 PM UTC | -545.24 h | -494.03 h |
| 352005213 | container | 08/23, 04:37 PM UTC | -1.81 h | -565.62 h |
| 255916089 | container | 08/23, 03:17 PM UTC | -17.17 h | — |
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How it's measured
- Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
- Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
- Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
- Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
- Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.