ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇪🇸 Algeciras
How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Algeciras, measured on closed voyages over the last 7 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.
Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)
108.85 h
MAE 38.44 h · 51 voyages
Broadcast ETA (RMSE)
61.16 h
crew-declared, 29 voyages (same set)
Gap
78.0 %
higher error than the broadcast ETA
Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days from the actual arrival are excluded as AIS sentinel / placeholder values (16 excluded). Both figures are computed on the same remaining voyage set — apples to apples.
Closed voyages
error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)| MMSI | Cargo | Arrival | Our error | Broadcast error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 255806016 | container | 07/11, 04:50 AM UTC | -60.57 h | -72.85 h |
| 563279500 | general-cargo | 07/11, 04:00 AM UTC | -36.99 h | — |
| 219629000 | container | 07/11, 01:28 AM UTC | 12.00 h | -273.48 h |
| 477174600 | container | 07/10, 12:52 PM UTC | -26.40 h | -38.38 h |
| 225419000 | product | 07/10, 05:25 AM UTC | 8.02 h | 685.08 h |
| 563141600 | container | 07/10, 04:52 AM UTC | 14.82 h | 1.13 h |
| 219069000 | general-cargo | 07/10, 03:41 AM UTC | 3.06 h | -3.94 h |
| 636020984 | container | 07/10, 02:48 AM UTC | -29.82 h | -224.81 h |
| 440112000 | container | 07/09, 11:32 PM UTC | -580.35 h | -163.53 h |
| 255709000 | container | 07/09, 11:06 PM UTC | 6.48 h | -726.60 h |
| 210707000 | general-cargo | 07/09, 10:56 PM UTC | 8.11 h | -7.94 h |
| 219069000 | general-cargo | 07/09, 08:38 AM UTC | -15.47 h | -15.64 h |
| 242830300 | container | 07/09, 07:26 AM UTC | 4.77 h | -295.44 h |
| 219018765 | container | 07/09, 05:09 AM UTC | -12.55 h | 559.34 h |
| 538004913 | general-cargo | 07/09, 01:04 AM UTC | 8.51 h | -0.58 h |
| 477552800 | container | 07/09, 12:20 AM UTC | -19.37 h | -528.85 h |
| 255806225 | product | 07/09, 12:05 AM UTC | -9.03 h | -315.09 h |
| 210707000 | container | 07/08, 11:27 PM UTC | -0.60 h | -8.45 h |
| 209613000 | container | 07/08, 09:01 PM UTC | -3.46 h | -176.02 h |
| 224879000 | container | 07/08, 06:26 PM UTC | -0.31 h | 2.06 h |
| 271001058 | container | 07/08, 04:17 PM UTC | 0.35 h | -119.29 h |
| 305703000 | container | 07/08, 03:10 PM UTC | 0.19 h | -3.18 h |
| 249663000 | product | 07/08, 12:22 PM UTC | 1.09 h | — |
| 219018765 | container | 07/08, 12:15 PM UTC | 1.08 h | 576.25 h |
| 256745000 | container | 07/08, 11:37 AM UTC | -0.64 h | -1.63 h |
| 225419000 | product | 07/08, 11:27 AM UTC | -148.50 h | — |
| 255806016 | container | 07/08, 11:00 AM UTC | -3.13 h | -210.52 h |
| 247258500 | product | 07/08, 09:37 AM UTC | -118.55 h | — |
| 228468800 | container | 07/08, 07:48 AM UTC | -1.19 h | -119.31 h |
| 477648800 | container | 07/08, 05:27 AM UTC | -0.01 h | -0.96 h |
| 219018765 | container | 07/08, 05:02 AM UTC | -30.40 h | -457.04 h |
| 256788000 | container | 07/08, 03:50 AM UTC | 0.53 h | -3.35 h |
| 372723000 | container | 07/08, 01:39 AM UTC | -2.88 h | -8.65 h |
| 210707000 | container | 07/08, 12:07 AM UTC | -3.27 h | -9.12 h |
| 224879000 | container | 07/07, 07:17 PM UTC | 4.73 h | -23.79 h |
| 538012659 | container | 07/07, 02:44 PM UTC | -2.48 h | -8.74 h |
| 563122300 | general-cargo | 07/07, 12:06 PM UTC | 3.64 h | -234.11 h |
| 220609000 | product | 07/07, 12:03 PM UTC | -20.17 h | — |
| 563297100 | container | 07/07, 11:53 AM UTC | -6.01 h | -19.39 h |
| 210707000 | container | 07/07, 09:35 AM UTC | -6.39 h | -114.59 h |
| 224879000 | container | 07/07, 09:02 AM UTC | -11.77 h | -13.54 h |
| 636092848 | general-cargo | 07/06, 11:25 PM UTC | 2.98 h | -1.43 h |
| 538090641 | container | 07/06, 11:17 PM UTC | 3.41 h | -74.29 h |
| 255826000 | container | 07/06, 05:43 PM UTC | -7.46 h | -168.23 h |
| 277562000 | container | 07/06, 02:39 PM UTC | -198.28 h | -178.66 h |
| 271047823 | product | 07/05, 10:29 PM UTC | 0.76 h | -6.49 h |
| 210312000 | container | 07/05, 08:13 PM UTC | 8.07 h | -141.23 h |
| 212796000 | container | 07/05, 08:10 PM UTC | -461.31 h | — |
| 538090452 | container | 07/05, 08:07 PM UTC | -11.50 h | -16.13 h |
| 563297100 | container | 07/05, 07:13 PM UTC | 1.91 h | -286.72 h |
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How it's measured
- Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
- Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
- Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
- Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
- Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.