ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇪🇸 Valencia
How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Valencia, measured on closed voyages over the last 30 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.
Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)
20.08 h
MAE 11.15 h · 353 voyages
Broadcast ETA (RMSE)
64.60 h
crew-declared, 228 voyages (same set)
Our advantage
68.9 %
lower error than the broadcast ETA
Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days from the actual arrival are excluded as AIS sentinel / placeholder values (124 excluded). Both figures are computed on the same remaining voyage set — apples to apples.
Closed voyages
error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)| MMSI | Cargo | Arrival | Our error | Broadcast error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 636021994 | container | 07/12, 12:04 PM UTC | 0.45 h | -8.07 h |
| 255805930 | container | 07/12, 11:13 AM UTC | 0.20 h | -1.22 h |
| 275524000 | container | 07/12, 09:39 AM UTC | -0.31 h | -75.67 h |
| 229458000 | container | 07/12, 04:49 AM UTC | 0.12 h | -21.33 h |
| 277550000 | container | 07/12, 03:17 AM UTC | -0.12 h | -199.29 h |
| 636090856 | general-cargo | 07/11, 11:25 PM UTC | 0.39 h | -2.42 h |
| 229626000 | container | 07/11, 09:37 PM UTC | -0.06 h | -42.63 h |
| 255701240 | container | 07/11, 09:33 PM UTC | 0.43 h | -289.55 h |
| 431120000 | container | 07/11, 07:48 PM UTC | -0.30 h | -1.80 h |
| 255805844 | container | 07/11, 03:44 PM UTC | 0.13 h | -51.75 h |
| 477642600 | container | 07/11, 02:25 PM UTC | -0.02 h | -880.42 h |
| 356534000 | container | 07/11, 12:26 PM UTC | -55.18 h | -173.95 h |
| 249930000 | product | 07/11, 12:04 PM UTC | 0.12 h | — |
| 229458000 | container | 07/11, 08:40 AM UTC | 0.01 h | -227.02 h |
| 255916273 | container | 07/11, 08:40 AM UTC | -0.25 h | -485.67 h |
| 249930000 | product | 07/11, 05:44 AM UTC | 0.10 h | -47.74 h |
| 636026585 | container | 07/11, 04:58 AM UTC | 0.38 h | -0.98 h |
| 372497000 | container | 07/11, 04:57 AM UTC | -0.41 h | -0.97 h |
| 636093027 | container | 07/10, 10:42 PM UTC | 0.07 h | -267.21 h |
| 538004913 | general-cargo | 07/10, 10:41 PM UTC | -0.19 h | -1013.19 h |
| 247384100 | general-cargo | 07/10, 04:58 PM UTC | -0.18 h | -84.48 h |
| 244198000 | container | 07/10, 04:51 PM UTC | -0.34 h | -227.85 h |
| 636025832 | container | 07/10, 04:15 PM UTC | 0.27 h | -264.76 h |
| 247417200 | container | 07/10, 03:34 PM UTC | -0.21 h | -427.07 h |
| 215417000 | general-cargo | 07/10, 12:54 PM UTC | -0.31 h | -14.90 h |
| 244985000 | container | 07/10, 11:08 AM UTC | 0.18 h | -26.14 h |
| 249930000 | product | 07/10, 10:44 AM UTC | -0.05 h | -28.74 h |
| 249930000 | product | 07/10, 07:23 AM UTC | -0.80 h | -25.40 h |
| 249830000 | general-cargo | 07/10, 05:47 AM UTC | -0.30 h | -741.79 h |
| 352757000 | container | 07/10, 04:26 AM UTC | -0.04 h | -7.44 h |
| 255784000 | container | 07/10, 03:40 AM UTC | 0.69 h | -439.67 h |
| 538007610 | container | 07/10, 12:10 AM UTC | -0.07 h | -18.17 h |
| 249930000 | product | 07/09, 10:03 PM UTC | -5.13 h | -16.06 h |
| 256849000 | container | 07/09, 08:25 PM UTC | 0.14 h | -279.43 h |
| 636023314 | container | 07/09, 07:28 PM UTC | 0.55 h | -31.48 h |
| 352006289 | container | 07/09, 03:40 PM UTC | -0.59 h | 0.33 h |
| 247383500 | general-cargo | 07/09, 12:05 PM UTC | -0.18 h | -85.09 h |
| 255806064 | container | 07/09, 10:29 AM UTC | -0.81 h | -1.48 h |
| 249930000 | product | 07/09, 09:40 AM UTC | 0.17 h | -3.68 h |
| 636021739 | container | 07/09, 09:01 AM UTC | -0.04 h | -757.53 h |
| 244985000 | container | 07/09, 08:22 AM UTC | -0.00 h | -297.37 h |
| 352003000 | container | 07/09, 07:43 AM UTC | -0.21 h | -142.73 h |
| 255915866 | product | 07/09, 07:07 AM UTC | -0.37 h | 698.38 h |
| 249930000 | product | 07/09, 06:22 AM UTC | -0.38 h | -97.87 h |
| 249096000 | container | 07/09, 04:55 AM UTC | 0.09 h | -672.92 h |
| 228468600 | container | 07/09, 02:04 AM UTC | 0.79 h | -235.08 h |
| 256871000 | container | 07/09, 01:49 AM UTC | 0.29 h | -2.33 h |
| 636014168 | container | 07/09, 12:16 AM UTC | 0.55 h | -1012.28 h |
| 229331000 | container | 07/08, 08:07 PM UTC | 0.14 h | -2.12 h |
| 212136000 | container | 07/08, 08:06 PM UTC | -0.23 h | -238.11 h |
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How it's measured
- Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
- Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
- Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
- Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
- Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.