ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇫🇷 Saint-Nazaire / Montoir

How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Saint-Nazaire / Montoir, measured on closed voyages over the last 30 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.

Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)

23.24 h

MAE 14.35 h · 139 voyages

Broadcast ETA (RMSE)

66.95 h

crew-declared, 92 voyages (same set)

Our advantage

65.3 %

lower error than the broadcast ETA

Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days from the actual arrival are excluded as AIS sentinel / placeholder values (36 excluded). Both figures are computed on the same remaining voyage set — apples to apples.

Closed voyages

error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)

MMSI	Cargo	Arrival	Our error	Broadcast error
636091788	container	07/12, 11:47 AM UTC	-0.13 h	—
236111791	chemical	07/12, 08:52 AM UTC	2.29 h	0.13 h
218627000	general-cargo	07/12, 03:03 AM UTC	-0.16 h	-133.55 h
226340000	product	07/12, 02:44 AM UTC	-0.07 h	-721.23 h
265058000	product	07/11, 12:27 PM UTC	1.52 h	-5.46 h
210281000	container	07/11, 09:13 AM UTC	0.26 h	-1.22 h
224876000	container	07/10, 09:06 PM UTC	0.42 h	-35.10 h
255916315	product	07/10, 07:09 PM UTC	-1102.94 h	-1040.16 h
228025700	container	07/10, 06:59 PM UTC	1.25 h	0.50 h
229632000	product	07/10, 06:55 PM UTC	2.09 h	-1042.92 h
636013157	product	07/10, 12:39 PM UTC	0.75 h	-78.67 h
228025700	container	07/10, 05:45 AM UTC	0.59 h	-393.75 h
413319660	product	07/10, 02:41 AM UTC	0.60 h	-124.19 h
228219600	container	07/09, 07:26 PM UTC	-0.14 h	-23.69 h
227681520	product	07/09, 04:49 PM UTC	0.75 h	-26.83 h
304089000	container	07/09, 12:59 PM UTC	-0.84 h	-643.00 h
215552000	chemical	07/08, 10:32 PM UTC	3.40 h	-5.05 h
228219600	container	07/08, 07:06 PM UTC	2.38 h	-482.10 h
230185000	container	07/08, 04:57 PM UTC	-0.07 h	-120.96 h
266002000	product	07/08, 04:52 PM UTC	2.60 h	—
219200000	product	07/08, 10:02 AM UTC	-0.12 h	-1037.04 h
209351000	product	07/08, 08:13 AM UTC	0.57 h	-1.98 h
314902000	container	07/07, 07:49 PM UTC	1.85 h	-38.83 h
224876000	container	07/07, 07:09 PM UTC	-0.38 h	-37.15 h
228024800	container	07/07, 05:57 PM UTC	0.39 h	4250.54 h
271043022	product	07/07, 09:08 AM UTC	2.16 h	-16.14 h
636013157	product	07/07, 08:21 AM UTC	2.34 h	-2.35 h
266002000	product	07/06, 03:16 PM UTC	-0.66 h	-208.77 h
305757000	container	07/06, 08:19 AM UTC	-0.19 h	-2.82 h
228024800	container	07/06, 07:21 AM UTC	1.43 h	-172.36 h
249723000	product	07/06, 06:05 AM UTC	2.62 h	-460.09 h
636025212	general-cargo	07/06, 05:24 AM UTC	0.26 h	-163.42 h
256765000	product	07/06, 03:21 AM UTC	0.86 h	-224.35 h
210283000	general-cargo	07/05, 07:20 PM UTC	0.43 h	-537.35 h
228084000	container	07/05, 03:31 PM UTC	0.58 h	-108.52 h
244730000	container	07/04, 07:09 AM UTC	-0.12 h	-1.16 h
538011475	product	07/04, 06:27 AM UTC	2.03 h	-730.46 h
244976000	container	07/04, 01:55 AM UTC	1.82 h	-88.92 h
224876000	container	07/03, 09:27 PM UTC	0.19 h	1.54 h
218627000	general-cargo	07/03, 09:21 PM UTC	0.31 h	-138.36 h
227681520	product	07/03, 09:00 PM UTC	0.89 h	-52.50 h
258022000	container	07/03, 04:30 PM UTC	0.48 h	-48.50 h
230185000	container	07/03, 01:09 PM UTC	0.36 h	2.83 h
311013400	product	07/03, 06:08 AM UTC	1.10 h	-2.13 h
256392000	product	07/03, 05:35 AM UTC	1.93 h	-66.59 h
256392000	product	07/03, 05:26 AM UTC	1.00 h	-66.44 h
236385000	chemical	07/03, 02:11 AM UTC	0.65 h	-8.19 h
250004612	container	07/03, 01:38 AM UTC	1.19 h	-89.65 h
255801490	container	07/02, 05:22 PM UTC	-0.23 h	-0.87 h
255916581	product	07/02, 05:15 AM UTC	-0.19 h	-83.26 h

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How it's measured

Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.