ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇬🇷 Piraeus

How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Piraeus, measured on closed voyages over the last 30 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.

Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)

14.91 h

MAE 45.71 h · 535 voyages

Broadcast ETA (RMSE)

71.96 h

crew-declared, 165 voyages (same set)

Our advantage

79.3 %

lower error than the broadcast ETA

Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days from the actual arrival are excluded as AIS sentinel / placeholder values (226 excluded). Both figures are computed on the same remaining voyage set — apples to apples.

Closed voyages

error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)


240620300	product	08/26, 11:12 PM UTC	0.61 h	1381.79 h
352006485	container	08/26, 09:32 PM UTC	1.69 h	-6.54 h
636025274	general-cargo	08/26, 09:08 PM UTC	0.63 h	-459.15 h
636019647	general-cargo	08/26, 08:36 PM UTC	2.31 h	-156.61 h
240752600	product	08/26, 06:47 PM UTC	-1.14 h	—
240043800	product	08/26, 06:36 PM UTC	0.47 h	—
239998600	product	08/26, 06:35 PM UTC	-0.93 h	—
563281900	container	08/26, 06:19 PM UTC	-0.66 h	-0.83 h
241794000	product	08/26, 06:14 PM UTC	0.35 h	-83.24 h
237829800	product	08/26, 05:08 PM UTC	0.41 h	—
239998600	product	08/26, 04:35 PM UTC	0.23 h	—
240043800	product	08/26, 12:11 PM UTC	-1.78 h	—
241895000	container	08/26, 11:21 AM UTC	1.21 h	-29.86 h
247484800	container	08/26, 10:52 AM UTC	0.35 h	-897.88 h
240205400	product	08/26, 10:32 AM UTC	-0.26 h	-464.77 h
241699000	product	08/26, 09:46 AM UTC	-5.18 h	-381.77 h
241842000	container	08/26, 09:28 AM UTC	0.09 h	—
241654000	product	08/26, 09:28 AM UTC	-0.06 h	2227.53 h
241842000	container	08/26, 09:17 AM UTC	2.59 h	-0.29 h
237141000	container	08/26, 08:42 AM UTC	0.72 h	—
240188500	container	08/26, 07:46 AM UTC	-0.37 h	-1776.27 h
239869900	product	08/26, 07:38 AM UTC	0.84 h	3051.86 h
237592400	product	08/26, 07:22 AM UTC	0.59 h	—
240698300	container	08/26, 07:16 AM UTC	1.45 h	-30.27 h
352006980	container	08/26, 06:09 AM UTC	0.35 h	-13.15 h
240870000	product	08/26, 06:07 AM UTC	4.21 h	—
240870000	product	08/26, 05:43 AM UTC	3.97 h	—
241694000	container	08/26, 05:10 AM UTC	-0.09 h	-24.17 h
229711000	container	08/26, 04:57 AM UTC	0.88 h	-101.96 h
255805788	container	08/26, 04:51 AM UTC	1.22 h	-142.86 h
240870000	product	08/26, 04:06 AM UTC	0.34 h	-721.62 h
256547000	general-cargo	08/25, 11:24 PM UTC	0.28 h	-588.91 h
240620300	product	08/25, 10:36 PM UTC	1.51 h	1406.40 h
240205400	product	08/25, 10:07 PM UTC	2.38 h	—
229607000	general-cargo	08/25, 08:13 PM UTC	1.20 h	-2109.23 h
240493000	product	08/25, 08:06 PM UTC	4.10 h	—
636025786	container	08/25, 07:25 PM UTC	0.83 h	-129.43 h
240493000	product	08/25, 06:58 PM UTC	-2.23 h	-1404.97 h
240205400	product	08/25, 04:48 PM UTC	0.91 h	—
255805997	container	08/25, 04:30 PM UTC	0.45 h	-81.51 h
240205400	product	08/25, 03:43 PM UTC	-1.41 h	-445.96 h
241843000	product	08/25, 03:12 PM UTC	-29.92 h	-153.20 h
240752600	product	08/25, 03:00 PM UTC	-0.16 h	—
241654000	product	08/25, 02:45 PM UTC	2.75 h	—
237592400	product	08/25, 11:44 AM UTC	0.12 h	—
240897000	product	08/25, 10:40 AM UTC	2.77 h	3085.32 h
241324000	product	08/25, 10:39 AM UTC	1.05 h	2232.35 h
241654000	product	08/25, 09:56 AM UTC	1.98 h	—
563154500	container	08/25, 08:52 AM UTC	0.94 h	-567.87 h
249343000	product	08/25, 08:47 AM UTC	4.22 h	-1515.79 h

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How it's measured

Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.