ETA accuracy benchmark · ⚓ Strait of Hormuz
How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Strait of Hormuz, measured on closed voyages over the last 30 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.
Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)
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MAE — · 0 voyages
Broadcast ETA (RMSE)
Building…
only 0 comparable voyages so far (need 20)
Gap
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benchmark builds as more voyages close
Closed voyages
error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)No closed voyages in this window yet — the benchmark fills as vessels complete their voyages to Strait of Hormuz.
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How it's measured
- Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
- Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
- Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
- Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
- Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.