ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇮🇹 Genoa

How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Genoa, measured on closed voyages over the last 30 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.

Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)

18.72 h

MAE 48.34 h · 217 voyages

Broadcast ETA (RMSE)

77.27 h

crew-declared, 77 voyages (same set)

Our advantage

75.8 %

lower error than the broadcast ETA

Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days from the actual arrival are excluded as AIS sentinel / placeholder values (104 excluded). Both figures are computed on the same remaining voyage set — apples to apples.

Closed voyages

error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)


247287200	product	08/26, 10:45 PM UTC	0.42 h	-1206.25 h
247337400	container	08/26, 05:50 PM UTC	-0.06 h	—
247270900	product	08/26, 01:01 PM UTC	0.39 h	-497.03 h
255916531	container	08/26, 10:42 AM UTC	-0.83 h	-71.70 h
255805834	container	08/26, 10:22 AM UTC	2.97 h	-55.37 h
247270900	product	08/26, 10:16 AM UTC	0.16 h	—
247293800	general-cargo	08/26, 09:58 AM UTC	0.38 h	-85.48 h
372497000	container	08/26, 06:49 AM UTC	0.70 h	-50.63 h
247453600	general-cargo	08/26, 05:42 AM UTC	0.17 h	-0.71 h
247380600	container	08/26, 05:21 AM UTC	0.06 h	-634.35 h
247380600	container	08/26, 04:43 AM UTC	2.01 h	—
247270900	product	08/25, 08:12 PM UTC	1.44 h	-480.20 h
247287200	product	08/25, 05:29 PM UTC	0.53 h	—
255806497	container	08/25, 05:14 PM UTC	0.02 h	-1449.24 h
247337400	container	08/25, 04:59 PM UTC	-0.46 h	—
247287200	product	08/25, 03:36 PM UTC	0.86 h	-1175.11 h
247287200	product	08/25, 12:58 PM UTC	0.25 h	-1172.48 h
247287200	product	08/25, 09:04 AM UTC	0.13 h	—
205703000	chemical	08/25, 06:46 AM UTC	-0.17 h	-59.77 h
352003000	container	08/25, 05:49 AM UTC	-0.19 h	-146.08 h
636092930	general-cargo	08/25, 05:26 AM UTC	1.16 h	-1.19 h
247270900	product	08/24, 11:13 PM UTC	0.28 h	-459.22 h
247287200	product	08/24, 06:06 PM UTC	0.61 h	-1153.62 h
219034351	container	08/24, 04:19 PM UTC	0.64 h	—
247380600	container	08/24, 04:18 PM UTC	1.31 h	-597.30 h
247287200	product	08/24, 04:00 PM UTC	0.78 h	—
256703000	general-cargo	08/24, 03:51 PM UTC	1.32 h	-1308.86 h
255806287	container	08/24, 03:32 PM UTC	-0.46 h	-28.54 h
219034351	container	08/24, 02:42 PM UTC	1.12 h	—
247287200	product	08/24, 02:40 PM UTC	-0.17 h	-1150.18 h
247380600	container	08/24, 01:24 PM UTC	0.41 h	-594.41 h
247337400	container	08/24, 01:22 PM UTC	0.46 h	—
247287200	product	08/24, 12:10 PM UTC	-0.03 h	—
247287200	product	08/24, 10:35 AM UTC	-0.25 h	—
247380600	container	08/24, 10:13 AM UTC	0.43 h	-591.23 h
255805480	container	08/24, 08:54 AM UTC	1.59 h	-539.91 h
255806158	container	08/24, 07:55 AM UTC	-0.85 h	-431.42 h
247270900	product	08/24, 07:42 AM UTC	-0.52 h	-443.70 h
247287200	product	08/24, 07:05 AM UTC	1.13 h	—
247287200	product	08/24, 06:59 AM UTC	0.82 h	—
247287200	product	08/24, 06:47 AM UTC	-0.37 h	-1142.30 h
247337400	container	08/24, 05:43 AM UTC	-119.40 h	—
215325000	container	08/24, 05:04 AM UTC	-0.54 h	-145.07 h
219034351	container	08/24, 04:58 AM UTC	0.09 h	-503.98 h
247296500	container	08/24, 04:32 AM UTC	-0.29 h	-0.54 h
341581002	general-cargo	08/24, 03:52 AM UTC	1.06 h	-11.87 h
271051982	general-cargo	08/24, 03:49 AM UTC	0.62 h	-727.82 h
247287200	product	08/23, 05:22 PM UTC	0.28 h	-1128.87 h
256022000	container	08/23, 02:27 PM UTC	1.49 h	-466.46 h
247287200	product	08/23, 01:31 PM UTC	1.45 h	—

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How it's measured

Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.