ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇺🇸 New Orleans / Lower Mississippi
How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at New Orleans / Lower Mississippi, measured on closed voyages over the last 30 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.
Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)
1487.10 h
MAE 1487.10 h · 1 voyages
Broadcast ETA (RMSE)
Building…
only 1 comparable voyages so far (need 20)
Gap
—
benchmark builds as more voyages close
Closed voyages
error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)| 636013522 | container | 09/25, 02:31 PM UTC | -1487.10 h | -120.02 h |
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How it's measured
- Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
- Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
- Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
- Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
- Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.