ETA accuracy benchmark · 🇧🇷 Santos
How Port Flow's predicted ETA compares to each vessel's own broadcast ETA at Santos, measured on closed voyages over the last 90 days. We publish the number — good or bad. Lower error is better.
Port Flow predicted ETA (RMSE)
1.28 h
MAE 1.11 h · 3 voyages
Broadcast ETA (RMSE)
Building…
only 1 comparable voyages so far (need 20)
Gap
—
benchmark builds as more voyages close
Closed voyages
error = predicted/broadcast minus actual arrival (hours)| MMSI | Cargo | Arrival | Our error | Broadcast error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 249075000 | container | 05/26, 12:47 PM UTC | 0.36 h | -73.05 h |
| 710000022 | product | 05/26, 08:11 AM UTC | 1.92 h | 5004.80 h |
| 636016769 | container | 05/26, 07:23 AM UTC | 1.03 h | -286.40 h |
See it on a live desk
Predicted ETAs, congestion and sanctions screening across 51 ports — try it in one click, no signup.
How it's measured
- Predicted ETA: distance-to-berth over speed-made-good, refreshed on every AIS position, with a seasonal correction from rolling medians.
- Broadcast ETA: the crew-entered ETA in the vessel's AIS message — the de-facto industry default.
- Both are compared to the actual arrival timestamp on the same closed voyages. We report RMSE (penalises large misses) and MAE (typical error).
- Broadcast ETAs more than 7 days off are dropped as AIS sentinel / placeholder values, and our model is scored on that same set — so the comparison is honest, not cherry-picked.
- Coverage is public AIS only; ports with weak coverage show fewer closed voyages. We'd rather show a small honest sample than a big misleading one.